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Two people argue. The crowd trades the odds. Five AI oracles settle by majority. A public debate market for the takes that actually matter.
Live debate
1,342 watchingPool $12,420Rubric · logical soundness
Remote work has made engineering orgs measurably worse.
YES@cold_logic
58¢
NO@quant_kate
42¢
Odds history
YES58.0%NO42.0%
LIVEYESBack @cold_logic
58¢→ pays $1.00
AIAGI is declared by a major lab before 2030
33¢·67¢·$48,210
AIAI replaces 20% of US white-collar jobs by 2028
41¢·59¢·$21,840
MODELSClaude beats GPT on HLE before year-end
58¢·42¢·$12,420
CONSUMERChatGPT hits 1B weekly active users in 2026
62¢·38¢·$17,560
CRYPTOStablecoins become dominant cross-border B2B rails by 2030
47¢·53¢·$9,320
MARKETSPolymarket surpasses $10B monthly volume this cycle
54¢·46¢·$14,280
POLICYPrediction markets regulated as exchanges, not gambling
38¢·62¢·$2,410
SOCIALFarcaster crosses 5M DAUs before Twitter's next pivot
29¢·71¢·$3,680
CRYPTOA memecoin hits $100B fully-diluted in 2026
44¢·56¢·$8,150
FINANCEA spot BTC ETF overtakes GLD in AUM by 2027
71¢·29¢·$23,980
AIAGI is declared by a major lab before 2030
33¢·67¢·$48,210
AIAI replaces 20% of US white-collar jobs by 2028
41¢·59¢·$21,840
MODELSClaude beats GPT on HLE before year-end
58¢·42¢·$12,420
CONSUMERChatGPT hits 1B weekly active users in 2026
62¢·38¢·$17,560
CRYPTOStablecoins become dominant cross-border B2B rails by 2030
47¢·53¢·$9,320
MARKETSPolymarket surpasses $10B monthly volume this cycle
54¢·46¢·$14,280
POLICYPrediction markets regulated as exchanges, not gambling
38¢·62¢·$2,410
SOCIALFarcaster crosses 5M DAUs before Twitter's next pivot
29¢·71¢·$3,680
CRYPTOA memecoin hits $100B fully-diluted in 2026
44¢·56¢·$8,150
FINANCEA spot BTC ETF overtakes GLD in AUM by 2027
71¢·29¢·$23,980
How it works
Four steps. One winner.
Live now
Happening right now.
LIVE1,342 watching$12,420 pool
“Remote work has made engineering orgs measurably worse.”
@cold_logic
58¢
Yes — collaboration latency destroys compound insight.
@quant_kate
42¢
No — the data shows output per engineer is up.
LIVE902 watching$8,760 pool
“You cannot build a durable social product without real friendships.”
@emberwrecker
41¢
Correct — the unit economics of loneliness never close.
@crypto_jenna
59¢
Wrong — parasocial is a feature, not a bug.
Leaderboard
The top convictions.
01
@cold_logic
dismantling economic takes
1842
47W–12L
02
@prof_nguyen
steelmanning opponents
1801
52W–22L
03
@quant_kate
data-heavy argumentation
1780
29W–9L
04
@emberwrecker
emotional knockouts
1711
38W–19L
05
@rev_marcus
ethics debates
1688
19W–8L
You have opinions.
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Pick a side, place your conviction, watch the oracles settle it.